“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, (1942)
No one should confuse 2015 Kansas with 1942 Europe, but Churchill’s trenchant turn of phrase might well apply to our politics and policy, five years into the administration of Governor Sam Brownback.
The governor, along with his legislative allies, has enjoyed an historic run, turning Kansas sharply to the right turn since 2010. No modern Kansan has had more impact on the state’s political make-up and its policies.
Still, “the end of the beginning” of the Brownback era is at hand. Aside from his lame-duck status, evidence for this claim comes from various sources, starting with the recent statewide Docking Institute survey from Fort Hays State University.
In that poll, just 18 percent of the respondents were “very” or “somewhat” satisfied with the governor’s job performance. Remarkably, only 38 percent of self-identified strong Republicans approved, while 45 percent disapproved.
Moreover, 61 percent of Kansans viewed his tax cuts as an economic-policy failure (30 percent a “tremendous failure”), while just seven percent viewed them as a success (.2 percent a “tremendous success”).
With such free-fall in public opinion, it is no great surprise that solidly conservative Kansas legislators, such as state senators Jeff King (R-Independence) and Jim Denning (R-Overland Park) are questioning the long-term wisdom of core Brownback policies.
What’s telling is that King and Denning are addressing two separate policies, taxes and Medicaid expansion, in similar ways, but from very different career perspectives.
King’s willingness to revisit Medicaid expansion derives from a local issue – the prospective closing of his hometown hospital – and his own, considerable ambition.
At 40, with degrees from elite universities, including Yale Law School, King – much like Secretary of State Kris Kobach – wants to advance, but the Kansas GOP field is very crowded, and the opportunities are limited.
It’s a measure of Brownback’s weakness that King is willing to take him on regarding Medicaid expansion. In a recent newsletter he states, “My point is that our health care system failed Independence and it is failing tens of thousands of hardworking Kansans. I don’t have all of the answers, but saying no to everything isn’t an option. I look forward to exploring the benefits of a conservative, Kansas-focused Medicaid expansion based on private insurance.”
In short, Jeff King’s local politics, his own ambitions, and the problematic nature of current Kansas policies have combined to move him, the Vice-President of the Senate, to reconsider a major policy option.
Jim Denning could not be less like Jeff King, save for his solid conservative GOP credentials. At age 59, with a background in accounting and as a former business CEO, his low-key style contrasts sharply with his colleague’s. Still, like King, he has consistently supported the Brownback policy agenda.
From his vice-chairmanship of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, Denning plays a major role in making and monitoring tax policy, and he has observed firsthand the plunge in Kansas revenues, with the many negative implications for bond ratings as well as policies ranging from education to foster care.
In particular, he finds fault with the income-tax exemption for independent Kansas businesses: “When you look at what we’ve done, it’s so unreasonable, so amateurish. There’s 1.5 million taxpayers in Kansas, and we’ve decided that 333,000 don’t have to pay tax.”
For a hard-headed CEO/accountant, there could scarcely more powerful insults than calling something “unreasonable” and “amateurish.”
To be sure, Sam Brownback retains many allies and still holds the veto pen, but when he starts losing senators like Jeff King and Jim Denning, “end of the beginning” may be at hand.
Burdett Loomis is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.