Sometime, probably mid-November, we Statehouse habitués will get the piece of information that will shape the upcoming election-year session of the Legislature.

That’s the mid-November report of the Kansas Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. That group of economists and state agency fiscal staffers will release its estimate of the state’s revenues for the remainder of this fiscal year and the prospects for the upcoming fiscal year that starts July 1, 2016.

The report is key to nearly everything that happens in state government, because that estimate will be the basis for Gov. Sam Brownback to touch up—or not—his budget for the rest of this year and next, and it will define just what the Kansas Legislature does next session in the way of spending.

As those estimators get ready for their report—which could be as early as mid-November but is required to be made by Dec. 4—lawmakers are wondering just what sort of session they have ahead of them in the upcoming year when the entire House and Senate stand for re-election.

While the CREG estimate is just that, an estimate, lawmakers tend to see it as the truth and the light and the way, and if revenues fall short of those estimates, well, lawmakers have to do ugly things to the budget—like cutting programs—or ugly things to Kansans—like raising taxes.

If that estimate is lowered, it means it might be necessary for further cuts halfway into the current fiscal year.

So far, it looks like that reduction in estimate is inevitable.

Those taxes that lawmakers raised in July haven’t produced the revenue that they expected…so far, the state is about $61 million short of its projections and nobody’s very confident that things are going to turn around.

That $61 million shortfall so far reduced what was estimated to be a $73 million budget surplus into about $10 million. Some of those new taxes, say, the income tax increases (which actually are reductions in tax deductions), won’t show up until spring, but some of those raises—sales tax especially—aren’t producing what was predicted.

The governor helped the ending balance some, with cuts and shifts and such that may be worth $62 million which would boost the ending balance to that previously projected $70-million plus. Oh, and that shakily restored balance amounts to just over 1% of the state’s total $6.2 billion in planned spending.

While $70 million or so sounds like a lot of money, well, it just takes a heavier than normal snowfall this winter, a flood or two—or a school funding decision from the Kansas Supreme Court—and it’s gone. Ever go on a date with just 1 percent more money than the movie tickets cost? Of course not.

So that’s why the administration and legislators are nervous. For some—let’s say, conservative Republicans—if we could put a cuff on their biceps, we could probably pump water to the roof. For some—let’s say, moderate Republicans and Democrats—they’ll have a real-life issue to campaign against those who support Brownback’s tax cuts, or at least those who don’t apply to them or to a majority of voters in their reelection bids.

But, none of the political aspects of the budget rises to the level of the real problem of not having enough money to provide services that Kansans believe they are entitled to.

And, that’s where the anxiety comes from.

Brownback says no new taxes next session—which is a plus for conservatives seeking reelection—which means that if that revenue estimate is dropped, well, things get cut. Deciding what is cut in the way of spending becomes political, too. Do you cut services to the poor; do you quit repairing roads or shoveling snow or sending emergency crews?

That’s the anxiety and next month, probably, we’ll find out whether, politics aside, Kansans get the government and services they expect.

Syndicated by Hawver News Co. of Topeka, Martin Hawver is publisher of Hawver’s Capitol Report. To learn more about this nonpartisan statewide political news service, visit www.hawvernews.com.

It seems people outside agriculture routinely try to define the family farm. In our contemporary society this means people two, three or four generations removed from the land live in sprawling suburbia.

Today, men and women whose great grandfathers or grandfathers worked the land with mules and horses, progressed to tractors and are now using GPS, sit behind desks and computers dealing with an agricultural public they rarely, or never, see or know.

The world as we knew it a few years ago is different today. Today, computers, smart phones and social media have changed the way we communicate, live and work. These tools have replaced traditional sources of learning, made our world smaller and in some ways, more constrained.

Considering these factors, let’s take a look at the family farm. Today’s contemporary farm needs to be based on owner operation. This means the rights and responsibilities of ownership are vested in an entrepreneur who works the farm for a living.

The second key in defining the family farm system should include independence. Independence is defined as financing from within its own resources using family labor, management and intellect to build equity and cash flow that will retire the mortgage, preferably in the lifetime of the owner.

Economic dispersion is the next important step in defining what a family farm should entail. Economic dispersion would include large numbers of efficient-sized farms operating with equal access to competitive markets worldwide.

No family farm would be complete without a family core. This family-centered operation must have a family that lives its life in harmony within the workplace. All family members share responsibilities and the children learn the vocation of their parents.

The ideal family farm would be commercially diversified. Production of diversified commodities should help reduce price risks and maximize the use of farm resources to produce crops and livestock that would, in turn, provide greater self-sufficiency.

One final attribute necessary in defining today’s family farm would be the acceptance and use of innovative technology. This should not only enhance farm labor but also help boost production.

Family farming carries with it a commitment to specific, independent values. These values become a part of the community and include conservation, frugality, responsibility, honesty, dignity in work, neighborliness, self-reliance and concern and care for future generations.

While it’s rare indeed that one particular family farm may possess all of these attributes, together they have created a system of agriculture that has been a part of our rural culture since this nation’s beginning.

John Schlageck, a Hoxie native, is a leading commentator on agriculture and rural Kansas.