Sometime Friday afternoon the state’s official financial gurus—the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group—will meet and come to agreement on just how much money the state will receive in the remaining few months of this fiscal year and next fiscal year that starts July 1.

That memo, called CRE, will be not quite as big a deal as a puff of white smoke rising above the Vatican, but for Kansas government/legislative/political purposes it will be close. Very close.

That estimate of revenue becomes the official estimate of revenue and everything that happens after it is announced is tied to that estimate.

Right or wrong, high or low, it’s the basis for nearly everything that is going to happen to or for Kansans for the fiscal year.

The issues that are going to be decided based on those estimates are school finance, of course, and a potential income tax cut for some Kansans, investments in water supply, highway improvements/repair and the pensions of thousands of Kansans who are members of the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System. Oh, and don’t forget health care for thousands of Kansans and payments for hospitals and nursing homes that take care of the elderly and frail.

A lot of issues based on that Friday afternoon meeting? Sure are, and the number that the CRE presents also will influence legislators—the entire House of Representatives, which is up for election this fall.

How does that figure into life for folks who don’t spend their day hanging around the Statehouse? It determines just what the state can afford and can’t afford and that determines just what legislators can pass or not pass that will make Kansans’ lives better or at least no worse.

Schools are of course at the top of the list, and there is that roughly $80 million that was inadvertently left out of the school finance bill that Gov. Jeff Colyer will sign into law this week. Sign a bill to boost state aid to elementary and secondary schools that doesn’t include all the money that lawmakers thought they were spending? Yes, because that bill, though it doesn’t contain all the dollars it should, also put lawmakers on the hook for it. They will have to pony up the money to accomplish what they thought they were voting on to convince the Kansas Supreme Court that they actually intend to make state funding for public schools constitutional. Not much backing out room there, is there?

But the other major issue that is dependent on that CRE will be an income tax cut for thousands of Kansans, because the state can’t cut taxes—that’s taxes for most of us, and revenue for the state—without an estimate that shows the state can afford it. And who doesn’t want a tax cut, and the bullet point on those House members’ palm cards that shows that they cut your taxes?

It’s a federal trickle-down deal, the less federal income taxes you pay the more of your money is left sitting around to levy state income taxes against. And, if the CRE comes in big enough, well, the state won’t need to tax that cash left over from your federal taxes, and it will appear that the state isn’t just gobbling up the federal tax leftovers.

Enough money for schools and a tax cut? What’s still on the plate can be spent for those roads, the water supply, care for the elderly and poor, law enforcement, prisons, a lot of things that have been scrimped on in recent years. If the CRE says the money is there.

Yes…Friday afternoon. We’ll see how that works out, won’t we…?

Syndicated by Hawver News Company LLC of Topeka; Martin Hawver is publisher of Hawver’s Capitol Report—to learn more about this nonpartisan statewide political news service, visit the website at www.hawvernews.com

Lack of understanding and critical thinking on the part of some in the environmental movement has compromised their effectiveness as self-appointed protector and guardian of our planet.

Whenever we improve our critical thinking skills it becomes easier to see through deception and exaggeration that has characterized the promotions of some environmental organizations and the mass media’s coverage of their issues.

If we examine the issue of critical thinking, one of the first things we must realize is correlation is not causation. I know I am wandering into a deep subject for such a shallow mind as mine but bear with me.

Correlation means two things tend to happen at the same time. Causation means that one thing is known to cause another.

Because two things happen at the same time doesn’t mean one is causing the other. We need proof, including a reasonable theory showing the path by which one thing causes another to occur.

Global warming and pollution of the water supply with herbicides for example – common environmental concerns – have resulted when correlation of two things was mistaken for causation. To avoid future errors, radical environmentalists must be responsible for proving one thing is causing another to happen.

They just can’t say it. That doesn’t make it so.

In today’s world, much remains unexplained. Cancer is one disease that comes to mind.

This dreaded disease might be due to genetic conditions, nutrition, a health problem in childhood, prolonged stress or a combination of these factors. One day scientists may find a cure for this disease, but that day has not arrived.

Trends don’t always predict the future. During the early ‘70s some scientists predicted the advent of another ice age. During the ‘80s temperatures increased and some experts said we’d experience catastrophic global warming. The cold winter of 1993-94 prompted a new wave of hysteria about another ice age.

Today’s projected cataclysms are the continued fear of global warming and the melting of the polar ice caps. Predictions of resource depletion are another reason for concern. Most of these are based on projections of past trends. Trends only serve as a guideline of past events and cannot document exactly what will happen down the road.

Another element of critical thinking is reliance on fact rather than opinion. So often in our society, the “squeaky wheel gets the grease.” The loudest or most controversial opinion receives the most attention. Need I say more about our society today?

This has definitely been true in the environmental movement where claims of upcoming calamities receive extensive media coverage. To make sure experts with a minority view don’t mislead the public, seek relevant facts and make up your own mind.

The same goes for all the misinformation in the political arena.

One reason apocalyptic abusers thrive is the public rarely relies on its long-term memory. People are unlikely to remember a doomsayer’s dire predictions of a few months ago, much less 10 or 20 years back. We must remember yesterday’s false alarms and the people who sounded them if we are to respond to future calls to action.

While few people enjoy risk in their lives, we can’t live without it. Everything we do has risk attached. Even ordinary events like walking down the steps (falling and breaking bones) or crossing the street (being hit by a truck).

Remember the risk of drowning (16 in a million) or dying in a home accident (90 in a million) or being killed in an auto accident (192 in a million) greatly exceeds the alleged environmental risks being hawked by some organizations.

Throughout our lives we make choices. We must decide between the black pair of shoes and the brown. We must decide on catsup, pickles or mustard on our hot dog.

The same can be said about our environment and our politics. We must choose our priorities wisely. We can’t do everything at once. To do so could produce unintended consequences that could harm the world in which we live.

Instead, we must apply the same prudence we apply to other significant aspect of our lives. The importance of environmental issues doesn’t exempt them from this discipline. Their importance makes careful planning and efficiency all the more necessary.

John Schlageck, a Hoxie native, is a leading commentator on agriculture and rural Kansas.

The Cottonwood Extension District, in partnership with the Hays Public Library, will host a free educational program on Emergent Literacy on Wednesday, April 25, 1:30-2:30 pm in the Schmidt Gallery at the Hays Public Library, 1205 Main Street, Hays.

Dr. Bradford Wiles, Extension Child Development specialist, will be the guest speaker for this program which is suitable for parents, grandparents, child care providers and early childhood professionals. Dr Wiles also wrote the K-State Research and Extension publication on this topic which all participants will receive.

According to Dr Wiles, children become readers and writers though a continuous developmental process called ‘emergent literacy’. He says learning to read is a process driven by a more experienced person (someone who already knows how to read, usually an adult), with a less experienced individual (usually a child.) While each person learns to read differently, research shows that building emergent literacy skills can be done intentionally and provides great fun for both the adult and child.

The most important aspect of the process is to read WITH the child, as opposed to reading TO the child. Reading with a child is a engaging process that joins the adult and child together in navigating the book’s story, characters, and ideas about what is happening.

In child development, the first step is to think about the child as an individual with a developing mind, as opposed to just an individual with needs to be met (such as for food, clothing and shelter.) As young children are growing and developing, they are constantly learning about the world and their minds are working to make sense of what they are experiencing.

Being “mind-minded” means being aware of what the child is thinking about when reading and being open to following the child’s imagination and direction during that time. These two concepts work hand-in-hand, meaning the book is really used as a good excuse to get adults and children together to interact in a rich, meaningful, and fun activity which demonstrates the importance of language skills and reading.

During the program, Dr Wiles will discuss six strategies adults can use to help children navigate books and explore the world of reading in a way that focuses on their developing mind and emerging literacy skills.
Pre-registration is helpful to ensure adequate program materials. Call the Hays office of the Cottonwood Extension District at 785-628-9430 to sign up for this program and learn to set the stage for future development of the children in your life.

Linda K. Beech is Cottonwood District Extension Agent for Family and Consumer Sciences.

By JOHN P. TRETBAR

Regulators respond to a string of more than a dozen earthquakes in northwestern Oklahoma last week by placing limits on one oil and gas producer’s saltwater disposal. The Oklahoma Corporation Commission directed operator M. M. Energy to reduce disposal volumes from 17-thousand to five thousand barrels per day at a disposal well in Garfield County, Oklahoma. The commission called this an “ongoing situation” and said further actions are possible. The first quake occurred on Saturday (4/7), registering at magnitude 4.6, and was followed by several others, including a 4.5 temblor near Perry, Oklahoma early the following Monday (4/9), according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quakes were felt across parts of southern Kansas and as far north as Great Bend.

Independent Oil & Gas Service reported nine active drilling rigs in eastern Kansas for the week, which is up two, and 31 west of Wichita, up one. Operators were moving in completion tools at two sites in Barton County, five in Ellis County and three in Stafford County. Baker Hughes on Friday reported 1008 active drilling rigs coast to coast, up seven oil rigs including five in Oklahoma and Texas. The total reflects a drop of two rigs exploring for natural gas. The rig count across Canada was 102, down nine rigs.

Operators filed 13 new permits for drilling at new locations across the state last week, six east of Wichita and seven in western Kansas, for a year-to-date total of 428 permits. There’s one new permit on file in Barton County and one in Ellis County.

Independent Oil & Gas Service reported 31 new well completions for the week, including 15 east of Wichita and 16 in western Kansas. Barton County notched two new completed wells according to the latest numbers. That’s 447 new well completions so far this year.

The first quarter of 2018 marked some slight improvements over the last couple of years in the Kansas oil patch, but the state is still well behind the huge numbers posted three years ago. Independent Oil & Gas Service reports 402 total completions for the first quarter, which is slightly higher than last year (349) and the year before (392). But the total is less than one-third of the 1,394 wells completed during the first three months of 2015.

Barton County operators completed four oil and gas wells in March and 12 during the first quarter of 2018. Ellis County reported three in April and 12 so far this year. Russell County reports three so far this year, two in March. Stafford County notched ten completions during the first three months of the year after adding four in March.

More than one in every four newly-completed oil and gas wells in western Kansas so far this year have failed to produce pay dirt. Out of 91 completions west of Wichita in March, 24 were dry holes. That’s 54 dry holes out of 214 total completions for the first quarter of 2018.

Operators last month filed 144 permits for drilling at new locations the state, bringing the total to 396 year-to-date. The quarterly total is slightly higher than last year (383), more than double the year before (192), but less than two-thirds of the first-quarter total from 2015 (669).

The Kansas Geological Society met in March to recognize and name six new oil fields across the state. That brings to 12 the total of new pool and infield wildcat discoveries so far this year.

The government reports US crude inventories grew by 3.3 million barrels last week. Gasoline inventories increased by half a million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration said imports were up 752,000 barrels per day over the prior week, but the four-week average is less than the same period last year.

Annual natural gas production in the U.S. is on pace to break records in 2018 and 2019, according to the monthly short-term energy outlook from EIA. Natural gas consumption is expected to rise over the next two years, with power generation the leading driver.

China’s Sinopec, Asia’s largest refiner, plans to cut Saudi crude oil imports loading in May by 40 percent after Saudi Aramco set higher-than-expected prices. Two refineries in northern Asia told CNBC they each planned to reduce May orders from Saudi Arabia by 10 percent.

There are currently a slew of job openings in the oil patch of North Dakota, but you may want to investigate housing before you apply. The Williston area, which is in the heart of the Bakken play, is in the midst of a single-family housing shortage. The Bismarck Tribune reports real-estate agents sold 110 homes during the first quarter of this year, the most ever for a three month period in the area. Officials are still unsure how new employees might get housing through the summer. State officials say the state has a “huge, huge need” for personnel for fracking, driving, drone and pipeline operations, as well as health-care professionals and teachers. The number of job openings for March reached its highest level since 2015. This is not the first time officials in North Dakota have faced this problem. Back in 2012, as the Bakken play was first bearing fruit, officials wrestled with increased demand for everything from new roads and housing to law enforcement and sewer service.