Population declines create more urgent need for business development, Williams tells council

By JAMES BELL
Hays Post

VICTORIA — During Monday night’s Victoria City Council meeting, Grow Hays Director Doug Williams shared with the group a few of the challenges facing western Kansas as the area is forecasted to trend toward an older and small population.

“The reality is western Kansas is dying,” Willams said. “We have an aging population, we are not retaining our young people, we are attracting less and less outside investment, and we have diminishing natural resources. If we believe in 20 years we are going to be pumping as much oil in Ellis County as we are now, we fooling ourselves and it’s a slow, but steady progression.”

Williams noted population decline as a primary driver in the concerns facing the county, sharing with the council results of a Wichita State University population projection study.

Looking at 2024, the charts showed a much higher average age throughout western Kansas, increasing even higher in 2034 until, by 2064, the average age would be roughly the same as it is now, he said.

But at that point, the population of the area is projected to be significantly lower.

Many of the counties in the area, by that time, are expected to be 59 to 95 percent lower in population.

“Only one county on there projects an increase, and that is Ellis County,” Willams said.

“What’s happening is the counties out in western Kansas are dying. Those people are moving to Hays. They are moving here for health care or various reasons,” he said. “Or they are moving elsewhere.”

He then shared that while that might seem good for Ellis County when looking at the population of the trade area, the larger loss is concerning.

“The current population, of that trade area, is 80,000 people,” Willams said. “If you look at that worst-case scenario, they project that same trade area will be 52,000 people — or 35 percent fewer people — to come to Hays to shop, to eat and for kids to go to Fort Hays State.”

The best-case scenario is that the area population stays even, but even that is concerning when looking at a 40-year projection he said.

“We can be like Nero and play our fiddle and do nothing and let it happen or we can try to be positive and do some things about it,” Willams said.

He urged the council that if action is taken now, the trend could change, calling for a greater sense of urgency in addressing the problem through development and recruitment including long-term investments that may not have near-term returns.

“And we can have a good neighbor policy, which means we help Trego County, we help Rooks County, we help Phillips County, whatever the case may be, because we are all in this boat together,” Williams said.

Entrepreneurship is key to reversing the trend, Williams told the council. He detailed several Grow Hays programs being offered over the summer to help spark business development in Ellis County.

Those programs, he said, can help increase business interest in Ellis County, including a housing development program that helps buyers secure funds to rehab area houses.

Details of the programs can be found on the Grow Hays website.

Willams also asked the council for funding from the city.

“We haven’t requested public funding for the last couple of years, from any public agencies,” Williams said. “We were trying to get our act together and show we provide value.

“We feel like we are now and that’s why we have gone back to the public sector to ask for funding,” he said. “Victoria has been good enough to fund us in the past at a level and we would ask for that level to start again in your 2020 budget.”

Council members are expected to consider the funding request at their next meeting. In the past, Victoria has funded Grow Hays, formerly he Ellis County Coalition for Economic Development, at a $1,000 level.

As he was wrapping up his presentation, Williams shared a final thought with the council.

“We have to recognize we are in a battle and the clock ticks,” he said. “We have some time to do something about it, but if we don’t, there is a tipping point out there someplace where it won’t make any difference.”