Like a supernova, Donald Trump has illuminated the electoral universe in 2016. Win or lose, he is likely to explode, showering his light and heat upon thousands of other races across the country, from county commissioner to U.S. senator.
Like a red dwarf, Sam Brownback’s presence has shrunk, to the point that his abysmal levels of support are what define him within both national and – far more importantly – state politics.
Although the governor’s name is not on the ballot, both the August primaries and the November 8th general election constitute, in large part, referenda on his record of taxation, declining revenues, and threats to myriad programs throughout the state.
In short, Kansas Republican voters are faced with a Trump-Brownback ticket. It’s not that a lot of GOP candidates identify with Trump. Many are appalled, and most just stay silent. But the magnetic field of his candidacy continues to affect our entire galaxy of races.
Last week, I chatted up a long-time Republican Party official, as we compared notes on the election. He was apoplectic about Trump, seeing him as bombastic, narcissistic, and utterly unqualified. At the same time, he said he could not vote for Hillary Clinton, arguing that she was congenitally dishonest. Still, he noted, she is sane, and could be trusted far more than Trump.
At the state level, Sam Brownback stands as the governor with the lowest approval rating in the nation.
So every GOP state legislative candidate must contend with both Trump and his penchant for outrageous statements and the least popular governor in modern Kansas history.
Over the past thirty years, voters have increasingly cast straight-party ballots, as opposed to more traditionally splitting their tickets.
So what will be the impact of Trump and Brownback on turnout and the election results in November?
It’s highly unlikely that Trump will lose Kansas, nor that any congressional incumbent will be defeated, despite some wishful thinking that Rep. Kevin Yoder is in trouble. More significant, however, is how a lack of enthusiasm for Trump and the disdain of Brownback will affect the hotly contested state legislative and judicial retention races.
Neither presidential candidate prevailed in the Kansas caucuses, where Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won convincing victories, so there has been little to build on. In deep-red Kansas, however, it’s the GOP enthusiasm that matters most for down-ballot races, especially in an era when straight-ticket voting has become the norm.
Although some political science research suggests that voters will “balance” their votes, with Trump defectors thus returning to the GOP fold down ballot, the Brownback factor may then kick in.
Kansas Democrats, who understand that their votes will not provide Hillary with the state’s electoral votes, also understand that they have the chance to defeat a number of far-right Republicans, thus amplifying the effects of the August primaries. And will moderate Republican voters really seek to “balance” their disdain for Trump by voting for conservative GOP legislative candidates?
In all likelihood, turnout will take a beating this fall, given the nature of the presidential contest. And most far-right Republicans will remain stalwart at the polls, although their enthusiasm is in doubt.
It may well be that those Kansas Republicans who are willing to reject Donald Trump and to react to the damaging policies of the Brownback administration will help diminish Trump’s margin and reject the governor’s legislative allies.
Trump-Brownback. Not quite the ticket that Sam Brownback had hoped for when he first ran for governor in 2010, but one that might just push Kansas a few more steps on the road back to thoughtful, moderate-conservative government.
Burdett Loomis is a political science professor at the University of Kansas.