Sometime Friday afternoon the state’s official financial gurus—the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group—will meet and come to agreement on just how much money the state will receive in the remaining few months of this fiscal year and next fiscal year that starts July 1.

That memo, called CRE, will be not quite as big a deal as a puff of white smoke rising above the Vatican, but for Kansas government/legislative/political purposes it will be close. Very close.

That estimate of revenue becomes the official estimate of revenue and everything that happens after it is announced is tied to that estimate.

Right or wrong, high or low, it’s the basis for nearly everything that is going to happen to or for Kansans for the fiscal year.

The issues that are going to be decided based on those estimates are school finance, of course, and a potential income tax cut for some Kansans, investments in water supply, highway improvements/repair and the pensions of thousands of Kansans who are members of the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System. Oh, and don’t forget health care for thousands of Kansans and payments for hospitals and nursing homes that take care of the elderly and frail.

A lot of issues based on that Friday afternoon meeting? Sure are, and the number that the CRE presents also will influence legislators—the entire House of Representatives, which is up for election this fall.

How does that figure into life for folks who don’t spend their day hanging around the Statehouse? It determines just what the state can afford and can’t afford and that determines just what legislators can pass or not pass that will make Kansans’ lives better or at least no worse.

Schools are of course at the top of the list, and there is that roughly $80 million that was inadvertently left out of the school finance bill that Gov. Jeff Colyer will sign into law this week. Sign a bill to boost state aid to elementary and secondary schools that doesn’t include all the money that lawmakers thought they were spending? Yes, because that bill, though it doesn’t contain all the dollars it should, also put lawmakers on the hook for it. They will have to pony up the money to accomplish what they thought they were voting on to convince the Kansas Supreme Court that they actually intend to make state funding for public schools constitutional. Not much backing out room there, is there?

But the other major issue that is dependent on that CRE will be an income tax cut for thousands of Kansans, because the state can’t cut taxes—that’s taxes for most of us, and revenue for the state—without an estimate that shows the state can afford it. And who doesn’t want a tax cut, and the bullet point on those House members’ palm cards that shows that they cut your taxes?

It’s a federal trickle-down deal, the less federal income taxes you pay the more of your money is left sitting around to levy state income taxes against. And, if the CRE comes in big enough, well, the state won’t need to tax that cash left over from your federal taxes, and it will appear that the state isn’t just gobbling up the federal tax leftovers.

Enough money for schools and a tax cut? What’s still on the plate can be spent for those roads, the water supply, care for the elderly and poor, law enforcement, prisons, a lot of things that have been scrimped on in recent years. If the CRE says the money is there.

Yes…Friday afternoon. We’ll see how that works out, won’t we…?

Syndicated by Hawver News Company LLC of Topeka; Martin Hawver is publisher of Hawver’s Capitol Report—to learn more about this nonpartisan statewide political news service, visit the website at www.hawvernews.com

Lack of understanding and critical thinking on the part of some in the environmental movement has compromised their effectiveness as self-appointed protector and guardian of our planet.

Whenever we improve our critical thinking skills it becomes easier to see through deception and exaggeration that has characterized the promotions of some environmental organizations and the mass media’s coverage of their issues.

If we examine the issue of critical thinking, one of the first things we must realize is correlation is not causation. I know I am wandering into a deep subject for such a shallow mind as mine but bear with me.

Correlation means two things tend to happen at the same time. Causation means that one thing is known to cause another.

Because two things happen at the same time doesn’t mean one is causing the other. We need proof, including a reasonable theory showing the path by which one thing causes another to occur.

Global warming and pollution of the water supply with herbicides for example – common environmental concerns – have resulted when correlation of two things was mistaken for causation. To avoid future errors, radical environmentalists must be responsible for proving one thing is causing another to happen.

They just can’t say it. That doesn’t make it so.

In today’s world, much remains unexplained. Cancer is one disease that comes to mind.

This dreaded disease might be due to genetic conditions, nutrition, a health problem in childhood, prolonged stress or a combination of these factors. One day scientists may find a cure for this disease, but that day has not arrived.

Trends don’t always predict the future. During the early ‘70s some scientists predicted the advent of another ice age. During the ‘80s temperatures increased and some experts said we’d experience catastrophic global warming. The cold winter of 1993-94 prompted a new wave of hysteria about another ice age.

Today’s projected cataclysms are the continued fear of global warming and the melting of the polar ice caps. Predictions of resource depletion are another reason for concern. Most of these are based on projections of past trends. Trends only serve as a guideline of past events and cannot document exactly what will happen down the road.

Another element of critical thinking is reliance on fact rather than opinion. So often in our society, the “squeaky wheel gets the grease.” The loudest or most controversial opinion receives the most attention. Need I say more about our society today?

This has definitely been true in the environmental movement where claims of upcoming calamities receive extensive media coverage. To make sure experts with a minority view don’t mislead the public, seek relevant facts and make up your own mind.

The same goes for all the misinformation in the political arena.

One reason apocalyptic abusers thrive is the public rarely relies on its long-term memory. People are unlikely to remember a doomsayer’s dire predictions of a few months ago, much less 10 or 20 years back. We must remember yesterday’s false alarms and the people who sounded them if we are to respond to future calls to action.

While few people enjoy risk in their lives, we can’t live without it. Everything we do has risk attached. Even ordinary events like walking down the steps (falling and breaking bones) or crossing the street (being hit by a truck).

Remember the risk of drowning (16 in a million) or dying in a home accident (90 in a million) or being killed in an auto accident (192 in a million) greatly exceeds the alleged environmental risks being hawked by some organizations.

Throughout our lives we make choices. We must decide between the black pair of shoes and the brown. We must decide on catsup, pickles or mustard on our hot dog.

The same can be said about our environment and our politics. We must choose our priorities wisely. We can’t do everything at once. To do so could produce unintended consequences that could harm the world in which we live.

Instead, we must apply the same prudence we apply to other significant aspect of our lives. The importance of environmental issues doesn’t exempt them from this discipline. Their importance makes careful planning and efficiency all the more necessary.

John Schlageck, a Hoxie native, is a leading commentator on agriculture and rural Kansas.

The Cottonwood Extension District, in partnership with the Hays Public Library, will host a free educational program on Emergent Literacy on Wednesday, April 25, 1:30-2:30 pm in the Schmidt Gallery at the Hays Public Library, 1205 Main Street, Hays.

Dr. Bradford Wiles, Extension Child Development specialist, will be the guest speaker for this program which is suitable for parents, grandparents, child care providers and early childhood professionals. Dr Wiles also wrote the K-State Research and Extension publication on this topic which all participants will receive.

According to Dr Wiles, children become readers and writers though a continuous developmental process called ‘emergent literacy’. He says learning to read is a process driven by a more experienced person (someone who already knows how to read, usually an adult), with a less experienced individual (usually a child.) While each person learns to read differently, research shows that building emergent literacy skills can be done intentionally and provides great fun for both the adult and child.

The most important aspect of the process is to read WITH the child, as opposed to reading TO the child. Reading with a child is a engaging process that joins the adult and child together in navigating the book’s story, characters, and ideas about what is happening.

In child development, the first step is to think about the child as an individual with a developing mind, as opposed to just an individual with needs to be met (such as for food, clothing and shelter.) As young children are growing and developing, they are constantly learning about the world and their minds are working to make sense of what they are experiencing.

Being “mind-minded” means being aware of what the child is thinking about when reading and being open to following the child’s imagination and direction during that time. These two concepts work hand-in-hand, meaning the book is really used as a good excuse to get adults and children together to interact in a rich, meaningful, and fun activity which demonstrates the importance of language skills and reading.

During the program, Dr Wiles will discuss six strategies adults can use to help children navigate books and explore the world of reading in a way that focuses on their developing mind and emerging literacy skills.
Pre-registration is helpful to ensure adequate program materials. Call the Hays office of the Cottonwood Extension District at 785-628-9430 to sign up for this program and learn to set the stage for future development of the children in your life.

Linda K. Beech is Cottonwood District Extension Agent for Family and Consumer Sciences.